How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To

Kit Yates

· Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your surname is Ball?· How can you be one hundred per cent sure you will win a bet?· Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting?· How do you prevent a nuclear war?Ever since the dawn of human civilisation, we have be...